An El Niño-less Summer is Coming: What to Expect
As we transition from spring to summer, it’s never too early to start thinking about the upcoming weather. This year, we can anticipate a summer without the presence of El Niño, a climate pattern that played a significant role in last year’s particularly harsh summer. However, the absence of El Niño does not necessarily mean relief from the heat, especially considering the ongoing effects of human-driven climate change. In fact, forecasters suggest that it could mean the opposite.
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, when the water becomes cooler than average, it signifies a phase known as La Niña. Both El Niño and La Niña can have significant impacts on global weather patterns. By June, forecasters expect ocean temperatures to return to normal, entering a neutral phase before the potential development of La Niña in early summer, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.
However, it’s important to note that the influence of El Niño or La Niña on US weather is not consistent and varies depending on the strength of these phenomena and the season itself. The effects are particularly pronounced in the winter, when temperature differences between the tropics and North America are more significant. This creates a strong and influential jet stream that reliably directs storms towards certain parts of the US. In the summer, the temperature contrast between these regions is less pronounced, resulting in a weaker influence on US weather.
Examining Past Summers
While the influence of El Niño or La Niña on summer weather may not be as clear-cut as in the winter, we can look back at similar summers to gain insights into what we might expect. Unfortunately, the outlook is not particularly cool. For instance, the summer of 2016, which followed a strong El Niño winter, was one of the hottest on record for the lower 48 states. Similarly, the summer of 2020, following a weak El Niño winter, saw the formation of La Niña conditions and produced one of the hottest summers on record, accompanied by the most active hurricane season on record.
Furthermore, it’s crucial to consider these climate phenomena within the context of a warming world. The impact of El Niño and La Niña is now occurring in a world experiencing the consequences of climate change. This raises the potential for even more extreme heat events. As Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist with the Climate Prediction Center, states, “This obviously isn’t our grandmother’s transition out of El Niño – we’re in a much warmer world, so the impacts will be different. We’re seeing the consequences of climate change.”
Summer Temperature Outlook for the US
Looking ahead, current summer temperature outlooks for the US indicate that we should brace ourselves for significant heat. The absence of El Niño does not necessarily mean a reprieve from high temperatures. With climate change as a contributing factor, we can expect the potential for extreme heat events to be even greater.
While the specifics of this summer’s weather remain uncertain, it’s essential to stay informed and prepared for the possibility of intense heat. Taking appropriate measures to stay cool, hydrated, and safe during hot weather is crucial. Additionally, it’s important to continue advocating for climate action to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change and reduce the likelihood of more extreme summers in the future.
